Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 20.743659 22.727809 24.948350 27.645681 30.873175 34.664354 39.538269
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.489677 20.095626 23.271137 27.535844 33.304072 41.161847 53.366865
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.023983 17.887432 21.614132 27.053936 35.274037 48.278437 73.510189
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 13.416775 16.464278 20.665568 27.291762 38.487370 59.459550 114.615144
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 12.086441 15.186712 19.662553 27.199078 41.298295 72.735461 196.601330
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.084830 14.213695 18.917104 27.326750 44.721533 91.893511 453.429816
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.269318 13.394684 18.258315 27.433310 48.326874 118.712777 2848.441853
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 9.743434 12.937885 18.095794 28.422615 54.806678 176.369261 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.059354 12.152465 17.254233 27.838530 56.943611 228.208198 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.542599 11.577910 16.694696 27.714676 60.596644 330.996789 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.166008 11.190828 16.412369 28.139005 66.711953 615.667819 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.783394 10.756291 15.982182 28.111280 71.401594 1346.637895 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.443189 10.387355 15.674735 28.445613 79.108000 31537.667990 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.113132 10.011910 15.316976 28.601872 87.033204 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.769925 9.588039 14.817150 28.270478 92.533178 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.520631 9.310505 14.582848 28.654015 104.472903 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.263057 8.998323 14.240581 28.640373 114.612314 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 6.044869 8.740975 13.984764 28.839749 128.731055 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 5.842987 8.498636 13.733744 28.997852 144.881561 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 5.717751 8.388102 13.758024 30.115405 182.921907 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 5.498925 8.087680 13.324648 29.491858 191.509407 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 5.325919 7.863547 13.043844 29.368844 213.029843 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 5.198150 7.717278 12.927101 29.846366 259.715554 NaN NaN